Party Lines
What the first day of early voting can tell us, and what it can't
On Friday, the Kentucky Secretary of State posted the first-day numbers for early voting, broken out by party registration: 66,166 Democrats, 60,793 Republicans, and 8,942 independents voted on Thursday. Nearly 300 voted in Pendleton County on Thursday, per the County Clerk. For comparison, the post offered 2022 and 2023. It left out 2024.
I went and got 2024, because a comparison with a missing year is a sentence with a word cut out. Then I sat with the four years side by side, because the more interesting story isn't the one the post seemed to be telling.
| First day | Democrats | Republicans | Ind./other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 midterm R +1,709 |
37,640 45.9% |
39,349 48.0% |
4,972 6.1% |
81,961 |
| 2023 governor D +9,567 |
44,909 53.1% |
35,342 41.8% |
4,392 5.2% |
84,643 |
| 2024 presidential R +31,299 |
89,782 39.8% |
121,081 53.7% |
14,833 6.5% |
225,696 |
| 2026 midterm D +5,373 |
66,166 48.7% |
60,793 44.7% |
8,942 6.6% |
135,901 |
Highlighted rows are the two midterms, the like-for-like comparison. Small figures are each group's share of that day's voters; shares may not total 100% because of rounding. Sources: Kentucky Secretary of State, as reported by WHAS11 (2022) and WKYT (2024), and the Secretary's October 30, 2026, post (2023 and 2026).
Compare like with like
The omission is defensible. 2024 was a presidential year, and presidential years bring out voters who skip everything else. Put it next to a midterm and it swamps the comparison, the way a holiday weekend swamps a store's weekly sales.
The fair comparison for Thursday is the last midterm, 2022. And on that basis something real moved. First-day turnout went from 81,961 to 135,901, up about two-thirds. (On the first day of early voting in 2020, the year it began, 57,154 people voted.) Kentuckians have learned the habit.
The difference is in the pace
Here's the part the raw numbers hide. Republicans didn't lose voters between the two midterms. Every group added voters. What changed is how fast each group grew compared with the whole.
| Change | Democrats | Republicans | Ind./other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Added voters | +28,526 | +21,444 | +3,970 | +53,940 |
| Growth | +75.8% | +54.5% | +79.8% | +65.8% |
| Pace vs. overall | ▲ 10.0 pts faster | ▼ 11.3 pts slower | ▲ 14.0 pts faster | — |
| Share of first-day voters | 45.9% → 48.7% +2.8 pts |
48.0% → 44.7% −3.3 pts |
6.1% → 6.6% +0.5 pts |
— |
Every group added voters. The highlighted rows show the difference that matters: who grew faster or slower than the electorate as a whole. Party registration is how a voter is registered, not how they vote.
Overall, first-day turnout grew 65.8%. Democrats grew faster than that, at 75.8%. Independents grew fastest, at 79.8%, though they're a small slice of the day, so their share barely moved. Republicans grew too, by 54.5%, but slower than the electorate around them. That gap in pace is how a 1,709-vote Republican edge in 2022 became a 5,373-vote Democratic edge this week. Nobody's column shrank. One column just didn't keep up.
That gap in pace is how a 1,709-vote Republican edge in 2022 became a 5,373-vote Democratic edge this week.
The smallest column
The column I keep looking at is the thinnest one, and it belongs to the fastest-growing group of voters in Kentucky. For more than a year, "other" (mostly Independents) has led the state's new registrations month after month. In February, nearly two-thirds of net new registrants chose neither major party (LEX18, 2026). In July, more Kentuckians registered as Independents than as Republicans and Democrats combined. That left registration at about 48% Republican, 41% Democratic, and 11% other ("'Other' Voter Registration Surges," 2026).
By the October 5 registration deadline, the "other" column held 388,992 voters (Narvaez Munguia, 2026). Nationally, Gallup found a record 45% of adults calling themselves independents in 2025, and 56% of Gen Z ("Record Number of Americans," 2026).
Yet on Thursday, independents and other unaffiliated voters were about one in fifteen first-day voters, though they're roughly one in nine registered Kentuckians. Registered Democrats, about 41% of the rolls, were nearly 49% of the day. The habit of voting early hasn't yet spread to the people most eager to leave the parties.
Researchers who study the religious "nones" have a warning that fits here. The sociologist Evan Stewart found that the religiously unaffiliated split sharply at the polls. Atheists and agnostics turn out more than churchgoers, while people who are "nothing in particular" turn out less, so the averages hide both groups (Stewart, 2023). An "other" on a voter registration is the same kind of label.
In "The Field of Encounter," I argued that the middle isn't unmotivated; it's uncontained. That one checkbox can hold a Refuser, a Pluralist without an Umbrella, and someone too depleted to reach the door until the last day. Some of them are also shut out of the closed primaries that decide so many of our races, which is why, as Secretary Adams keeps pointing out, legislators in both parties have filed bills to open them. A party count, by design, has the hardest time seeing them.
The habit of voting early hasn't yet spread to the people most eager to leave the parties.
Party lines aren't vote lines
Before anyone celebrates or panics: a party registration is how someone filled out a form, sometimes decades ago. It is not how they voted on Thursday.
In Kentucky that gap has long run in one direction. Plenty of registered Democrats, especially older voters in rural and eastern counties, kept the label long after they started voting Republican. That's why a Democratic lead among early voters has rarely meant a Democratic lead in the count.
The party-switch problem cuts the other way too. Kentucky's primaries are closed, and in many of our counties the May primary is where local races are actually decided. So people register, and candidates run, where the decision gets made. I've watched candidates who might once have run as Democrats run as Republicans to win those primaries. When the labels blur in both directions, a registration count measures something, but not the thing everyone wants it to measure.
What the first day does tell us
It tells us about energy. A midterm first day up two-thirds over the last one means more people are deciding early, and showing up to say so. It tells us that, among the people who turned out first, the groups that grew fastest were the ones that usually trail in Kentucky's midterm math. That is worth noticing.
What it can't tell us is the result. Early voting is one slice of the ballots, the slice that votes first. Election Day voters, mail ballots, and every registered voter who has drifted from their label are still to come.
Where I'm reading from
I keep these numbers the way I keep a rehearsal report: useful, specific, and not the show. The show is Tuesday. If you haven't voted yet, Saturday is the last day of no-excuse early voting, and the polls are open Tuesday from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time. Either way, the count that matters is the one you're part of.
KP Williams
KP Williams
References
Almost 82,000 Kentucky voters took advantage of first day of early voting. (2022, November). WHAS11. https://whas11.com/article/news/politics/82000-kentucky-voters-first-day-early-voting-democrat-republican-independent/417-16067381-fbb5-40fd-adc1-438bffce9732
Horsley, M. (2026, October 26). Early voting to begin in Kentucky this week ahead of November election. Kentucky Lantern. https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/434652
Kentucky early voting sees record-high turnout. (2024, November 2). WKYT. https://www.wkyt.com/2024/11/02/kentucky-early-voter-turnout-breaks-record-second-day-row/
Kentucky Secretary of State. (2026, October 30). [First-day early voting turnout by party registration] [Facebook post]. Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/KySecofState/posts/pfbid0pZRCHsCngK2iRhC7s2bYTKMTKB99R5GqMCgHV1LGUT7Bms6bkWCXFo2wYSZwJMeml
LEX18. (2026, March 6). Most new Kentucky voters in February registered as Independent, data reveals. LEX18. https://www.lex18.com/news/state-of-the-commonwealth/most-new-kentucky-voters-in-february-registered-as-independent-data-reveals
Narvaez Munguia, J. (2026, October 5). More Kentucky voters register as independents ahead of midterm election. Spectrum News 1. https://spectrumnews1.com/ky/lexington/news/2026/10/05/independent-voters-in-kentucky
"Other" voter registration surges in July as 8,598 new Kentucky voters registered. (2026, August 8). NKyTribune. https://nkytribune.com/2026/08/other-voter-registration-surges-in-july-as-8598-new-kentucky-voters-registered/
Record number of Americans identify as independents, poll finds. (2026, January 12). Semafor. https://www.semafor.com/article/01/12/2026/record-number-of-americans-identify-as-independents-poll-finds
Stewart, E. (2023, September 6). Not religious, not voting? The 'nones' are a powerful force in politics – but not yet a coalition. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/not-religious-not-voting-the-nones-are-a-powerful-force-in-politics-but-not-yet-a-coalition-207584